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    • Oxford University Press | Forthcoming | "How China's Green Strategy is Changing the World" (chapter in The Oxford Handbook on the Greening of Economic Development)
    • The Brookings Institution | January 2025| "Trump dealmaking could shift the cold war over the climate"
    • The Brookings Institution | February 2023 | "Power Play: How the U.S. Wins if China Greens the Global South"
    • Canary Media | Jan. 31, 2023 | "Can an economic giant clean up natural gas -- and then swap in hydrogen?"
    • Canary Media | Jan. 30, 2023 | "Inside the high-dollar race to sell natural gas as low-carbon"
    • WIRED | September 2022 | "The Carbon Underground"
    • iScience | Nov. 19, 2021 | "Hot Money: Illuminating the Financing of High-Carbon Infrastructure in the Developing World"
    • The Brookings Institution | Nov. 10, 2021 | "Infrastructure in the developing world is a planetary furnace. Here’s how to cool it."
    • New York Times | Nov. 9, 2021 | "Money for Carbon Cuts is Missing the Mark in the Developing World"
    • Fortune | October/November 2021 | "Burned"
    • Joule | July 2021 | "Hard choices about heavy metal on a hot planet"
    • Texas Monthly | June 2021 | "Subsidy Shuffle"
    • Texas Monthly | May 27, 2021 | "ExxonMobil and Its Rivals Learn They Can’t Ignore Climate Activists"
    • Texas Monthly | May 2021 | "Sea Change"
    • Texas Monthly | Feb. 19, 2021 | "The Texas Blackout is the Story of a Disaster Foretold"
    • Fortune | Feb. 16, 2021 | "The electrification of the auto industry is speeding up"
    • The East Asia Institute | Dec. 7, 2020 | "Retreat from the Rock"
    • The Brookings Institution | Sept. 14, 2020 | "The Climate of Chinese Checks"
    • Texas Monthly | July 2020 | "The 'Mother Fracker' Reckons With the Mother of All Oil Busts"
    • Stanford Magazine | June 5, 2020 | "To My Residents, in Tumultuous Times"
    • Fortune | May 2020 | "Why the Coronavirus Crisis Could Make Big Oil Greener"
    • Fortune | April 2020 | "Big Oil's Hail Mary"
    • Fortune | April 2020 | "Inside Project Odessa"
    • Fortune | November 2019 | "Racing a Rising Tide"
    • Fortune | September 2019 | "Electric Car Gold Rush: The Auto Industry Charges Into China"
    • Fortune | September 2019 | "From Fringe to Core" The 'Green' Economy Grows Up"
    • Mother Jones | September/October 2019 | "Burn. Build. Repeat: Why Our Wildfire Policy Is So Deadly"
    • Fortune | June 2019 | "The Race to Build a Better Battery"
    • The Brookings Institution | May 28, 2019 | "Grow Green China Inc.: How China's Epic Push for Cleaner Energy Creates Economic Opportunity for the West"
    • Fortune | May 28, 2019 | "Why the U.S. Should Embrace 'Green China Inc.,' Not Fight It"
    • Fortune | April 2019 | "China's Electric-Car Showdown"
    • Fortune | March 26, 2019 | "Norway's State-Run Oil and Gas Giant Is Backing a Battery-Research Fund"
    • USA Today | Jan. 10, 2019 | "Carbon Prices Are Like Unicorns and Fairy Dust"
    • Joule | December 2018 | "Hot Air Won't Fly: The New Climate Consensus That Carbon Pricing Isn't Cutting It"
    • Wall Street Journal | December 8, 2018 | "Why Californians Were Drawn Toward the Fire Zones"
    • New York Times | September 23, 2018 | "With Climate Change No Longer in the Future, Adaptation Speeds Up"
    • Mother Jones | July/August 2018 | "Sun Blocked"
    • Foreign Affairs | July/August 2018 | "Why Carbon Pricing Isn't Working"
    • Fortune | June 2018 | "Lone Star Rising"
    • The Cairo Review of Global Affairs | Winter 2018 | "The New Age of Renewable Energy"
    • Fortune | February 2018 | "Shell Faces `Lower Forever'"
    • Wall Street Journal | Nov. 13, 2017 | "Will New Tariffs Hurt the U.S. Solar-Power Industry? Yes."
    • Foreign Affairs | July 17, 2017 | Climate Wars
    • New York Times | March 21, 2017 | "Making Solar Big Enough to Matter"
    • Stanford | March 2017 | "The New Solar System"
    • Fortune | March 2017 | "Germany's High-Priced Energy Revolution"
    • Fortune | January 2017 | "Donald Trump and Rex Tillerson: Conflict Ahead?"
    • Fortune | December 2015 | "Silicon Valley's New Power Player: China"
    • New Republic | December 2015 | "Who Will Pay for Climate Change?"
    • The Atlantic | July/August 2015 | "Why the Saudis Are Going Solar"
    • New Republic | February 2015 | "Facing the Truth About Climate Change"
    • Fortune | September 2014 | "The Drama of Mexico's (Black) Gold"
    • Finance and Development | September 2014 | "New Powers"
    • Quartz | June 2013 | "How China's solar boom fizzled and went bust"
    • Foreign Affairs | May/June 2012 | "Tough Love for Renewable Energy"
    • Wall Street Journal "Energy Experts" blog
    • Slate
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JEFFREY BALL

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JEFFREY BALL

  • Home
  • About
  • Writing
    • Oxford University Press | Forthcoming | "How China's Green Strategy is Changing the World" (chapter in The Oxford Handbook on the Greening of Economic Development)
    • The Brookings Institution | January 2025| "Trump dealmaking could shift the cold war over the climate"
    • The Brookings Institution | February 2023 | "Power Play: How the U.S. Wins if China Greens the Global South"
    • Canary Media | Jan. 31, 2023 | "Can an economic giant clean up natural gas -- and then swap in hydrogen?"
    • Canary Media | Jan. 30, 2023 | "Inside the high-dollar race to sell natural gas as low-carbon"
    • WIRED | September 2022 | "The Carbon Underground"
    • iScience | Nov. 19, 2021 | "Hot Money: Illuminating the Financing of High-Carbon Infrastructure in the Developing World"
    • The Brookings Institution | Nov. 10, 2021 | "Infrastructure in the developing world is a planetary furnace. Here’s how to cool it."
    • New York Times | Nov. 9, 2021 | "Money for Carbon Cuts is Missing the Mark in the Developing World"
    • Fortune | October/November 2021 | "Burned"
    • Joule | July 2021 | "Hard choices about heavy metal on a hot planet"
    • Texas Monthly | June 2021 | "Subsidy Shuffle"
    • Texas Monthly | May 27, 2021 | "ExxonMobil and Its Rivals Learn They Can’t Ignore Climate Activists"
    • Texas Monthly | May 2021 | "Sea Change"
    • Texas Monthly | Feb. 19, 2021 | "The Texas Blackout is the Story of a Disaster Foretold"
    • Fortune | Feb. 16, 2021 | "The electrification of the auto industry is speeding up"
    • The East Asia Institute | Dec. 7, 2020 | "Retreat from the Rock"
    • The Brookings Institution | Sept. 14, 2020 | "The Climate of Chinese Checks"
    • Texas Monthly | July 2020 | "The 'Mother Fracker' Reckons With the Mother of All Oil Busts"
    • Stanford Magazine | June 5, 2020 | "To My Residents, in Tumultuous Times"
    • Fortune | May 2020 | "Why the Coronavirus Crisis Could Make Big Oil Greener"
    • Fortune | April 2020 | "Big Oil's Hail Mary"
    • Fortune | April 2020 | "Inside Project Odessa"
    • Fortune | November 2019 | "Racing a Rising Tide"
    • Fortune | September 2019 | "Electric Car Gold Rush: The Auto Industry Charges Into China"
    • Fortune | September 2019 | "From Fringe to Core" The 'Green' Economy Grows Up"
    • Mother Jones | September/October 2019 | "Burn. Build. Repeat: Why Our Wildfire Policy Is So Deadly"
    • Fortune | June 2019 | "The Race to Build a Better Battery"
    • The Brookings Institution | May 28, 2019 | "Grow Green China Inc.: How China's Epic Push for Cleaner Energy Creates Economic Opportunity for the West"
    • Fortune | May 28, 2019 | "Why the U.S. Should Embrace 'Green China Inc.,' Not Fight It"
    • Fortune | April 2019 | "China's Electric-Car Showdown"
    • Fortune | March 26, 2019 | "Norway's State-Run Oil and Gas Giant Is Backing a Battery-Research Fund"
    • USA Today | Jan. 10, 2019 | "Carbon Prices Are Like Unicorns and Fairy Dust"
    • Joule | December 2018 | "Hot Air Won't Fly: The New Climate Consensus That Carbon Pricing Isn't Cutting It"
    • Wall Street Journal | December 8, 2018 | "Why Californians Were Drawn Toward the Fire Zones"
    • New York Times | September 23, 2018 | "With Climate Change No Longer in the Future, Adaptation Speeds Up"
    • Mother Jones | July/August 2018 | "Sun Blocked"
    • Foreign Affairs | July/August 2018 | "Why Carbon Pricing Isn't Working"
    • Fortune | June 2018 | "Lone Star Rising"
    • The Cairo Review of Global Affairs | Winter 2018 | "The New Age of Renewable Energy"
    • Fortune | February 2018 | "Shell Faces `Lower Forever'"
    • Wall Street Journal | Nov. 13, 2017 | "Will New Tariffs Hurt the U.S. Solar-Power Industry? Yes."
    • Foreign Affairs | July 17, 2017 | Climate Wars
    • New York Times | March 21, 2017 | "Making Solar Big Enough to Matter"
    • Stanford | March 2017 | "The New Solar System"
    • Fortune | March 2017 | "Germany's High-Priced Energy Revolution"
    • Fortune | January 2017 | "Donald Trump and Rex Tillerson: Conflict Ahead?"
    • Fortune | December 2015 | "Silicon Valley's New Power Player: China"
    • New Republic | December 2015 | "Who Will Pay for Climate Change?"
    • The Atlantic | July/August 2015 | "Why the Saudis Are Going Solar"
    • New Republic | February 2015 | "Facing the Truth About Climate Change"
    • Fortune | September 2014 | "The Drama of Mexico's (Black) Gold"
    • Finance and Development | September 2014 | "New Powers"
    • Quartz | June 2013 | "How China's solar boom fizzled and went bust"
    • Foreign Affairs | May/June 2012 | "Tough Love for Renewable Energy"
    • Wall Street Journal "Energy Experts" blog
    • Slate
  • Speaking
    • Lecturing
    • Moderating and interviewing
  • Research & Teaching
  • Media
    • Television
    • Print and Radio
  • Contact
Fortune USA - March 15, 2017 pdf free download.jpg

Germany's High-Priced Energy Revolution | Fortune | March 2017

By Jeffrey Ball

As many generations of Dieter Dürrmeier’s family as he can track have grown vegetables and tended livestock here in Opfingen, a hilly corner of southern Germany near the French and Swiss borders. Over the decades the Dürrmeiers have adapted, ever on the lookout for new ways to make money. In 1963, Dürrmeier’s father exploited cheap government loans to move his 136-acre farm from the crowded village to the outskirts of town. In 1986 the Dürrmeiers stopped raising cows and shifted to the less cyclical business of boarding wealthy city dwellers’ horses. But the family’s current shift has been its most lucrative yet. Though they still grow asparagus and grapes and tend to the equines, the Dürrmeiers today harvest their fattest earnings from sunshine. Thanks to generous checks from the German people, that crop from the sky spins off cash more reliably—and at higher margins—than anything the Dürrmeiers have ever grown in the ground.

On a recent frigid winter night, wearing a red-and-green flannel shirt and mud-caked boots, Dürrmeier takes a break from feeding the horses and chats under the eave of a barn, one of four work buildings on whose roofs he has installed subsidized solar panels. The glass-and-metal sheets, whose production he monitors in real time on a computer in his office, fetch him a steady profit of about 40,000 euros (about $42,000) annually. That equates to about 40% of the earnings from his entire farming operation. As he describes his solar windfall, the balding, barrel-chested 62-year-old is both proud and embarrassed.

“For us it’s a very good business, but for the German people it’s very bad,” Dürrmeier says of the government policy that has turned intermittent sunshine into an all but sure thing for his wallet. Germany’s solar-subsidy scheme pays him a set price for every kilowatt-hour of electricity he produces with his solar panels and sells into the grid. It guarantees him that price, which when he started was several times the prevailing electricity rate, for 20 years.

When he learned of the subsidy more than a decade ago, he says, “I was at first skeptical because it was a bit too good, and I personally objected because I thought that subsidies were generally bad for the economy as a whole. But if it was offered, I had to take it. It was against my beliefs, but as an entrepreneur it was the right thing to do.”

Germany has launched a renewable-energy revolution, and it’s paying a fortune to achieve it. In the past decade its green-minded politicians, backed by green-minded voters, have undertaken an extraordinary energy transition known in German as the Energiewende. At the center of the transformation has been a slate of renewable-energy subsidies that have dramatically scaled up once-niche solar and wind technologies and in the process have slashed their cost, making them competitive in some cases with fossil fuels.

Thanks to Germany’s lavish first-mover spending, a raft of second-mover countries, from the U.S. to China to India, are now installing solar and wind power on a huge scale. If renewable energy ends up significantly helping curb climate change, then history may judge the Energiewende as a remarkable example of global leadership.

The raw ambition of the Energiewende is both mind-boggling and quintessentially German. It reflects the engineering prowess of a country that built the Autobahn, pioneered modernist architecture, and cranks out sleek BMWs and Mercedes. It evokes the environmental ideals of a society that idolizes the Black Forest, led the way in organic farming, and still celebrates Goethe’s nature-loving poems. It bespeaks the moral confidence, both wrong and right, of a culture that created Romanticism in the late 18th century, Nazism in the 1930s, and one of the world’s most generous campaigns to welcome refugees today.

But all that ambition is bleeding Germany. The mounting costs are testing its resolve. Leading politicians, even those with strong environmental credibility, are racing to rein in spending. If they can’t achieve that, then Germany’s near miracle may be remembered as the environmental equivalent of, say, heart-transplant surgery: a worthy endeavor, undoubtedly, but one that remains unattainable for all but the very wealthiest.

Read the full piece here.

Germany's High-Priced Energy Revolution | Fortune | March 2017

By Jeffrey Ball

As many generations of Dieter Dürrmeier’s family as he can track have grown vegetables and tended livestock here in Opfingen, a hilly corner of southern Germany near the French and Swiss borders. Over the decades the Dürrmeiers have adapted, ever on the lookout for new ways to make money. In 1963, Dürrmeier’s father exploited cheap government loans to move his 136-acre farm from the crowded village to the outskirts of town. In 1986 the Dürrmeiers stopped raising cows and shifted to the less cyclical business of boarding wealthy city dwellers’ horses. But the family’s current shift has been its most lucrative yet. Though they still grow asparagus and grapes and tend to the equines, the Dürrmeiers today harvest their fattest earnings from sunshine. Thanks to generous checks from the German people, that crop from the sky spins off cash more reliably—and at higher margins—than anything the Dürrmeiers have ever grown in the ground.

On a recent frigid winter night, wearing a red-and-green flannel shirt and mud-caked boots, Dürrmeier takes a break from feeding the horses and chats under the eave of a barn, one of four work buildings on whose roofs he has installed subsidized solar panels. The glass-and-metal sheets, whose production he monitors in real time on a computer in his office, fetch him a steady profit of about 40,000 euros (about $42,000) annually. That equates to about 40% of the earnings from his entire farming operation. As he describes his solar windfall, the balding, barrel-chested 62-year-old is both proud and embarrassed.

“For us it’s a very good business, but for the German people it’s very bad,” Dürrmeier says of the government policy that has turned intermittent sunshine into an all but sure thing for his wallet. Germany’s solar-subsidy scheme pays him a set price for every kilowatt-hour of electricity he produces with his solar panels and sells into the grid. It guarantees him that price, which when he started was several times the prevailing electricity rate, for 20 years.

When he learned of the subsidy more than a decade ago, he says, “I was at first skeptical because it was a bit too good, and I personally objected because I thought that subsidies were generally bad for the economy as a whole. But if it was offered, I had to take it. It was against my beliefs, but as an entrepreneur it was the right thing to do.”

Germany has launched a renewable-energy revolution, and it’s paying a fortune to achieve it. In the past decade its green-minded politicians, backed by green-minded voters, have undertaken an extraordinary energy transition known in German as the Energiewende. At the center of the transformation has been a slate of renewable-energy subsidies that have dramatically scaled up once-niche solar and wind technologies and in the process have slashed their cost, making them competitive in some cases with fossil fuels.

Thanks to Germany’s lavish first-mover spending, a raft of second-mover countries, from the U.S. to China to India, are now installing solar and wind power on a huge scale. If renewable energy ends up significantly helping curb climate change, then history may judge the Energiewende as a remarkable example of global leadership.

The raw ambition of the Energiewende is both mind-boggling and quintessentially German. It reflects the engineering prowess of a country that built the Autobahn, pioneered modernist architecture, and cranks out sleek BMWs and Mercedes. It evokes the environmental ideals of a society that idolizes the Black Forest, led the way in organic farming, and still celebrates Goethe’s nature-loving poems. It bespeaks the moral confidence, both wrong and right, of a culture that created Romanticism in the late 18th century, Nazism in the 1930s, and one of the world’s most generous campaigns to welcome refugees today.

But all that ambition is bleeding Germany. The mounting costs are testing its resolve. Leading politicians, even those with strong environmental credibility, are racing to rein in spending. If they can’t achieve that, then Germany’s near miracle may be remembered as the environmental equivalent of, say, heart-transplant surgery: a worthy endeavor, undoubtedly, but one that remains unattainable for all but the very wealthiest.

Read the full piece here.

Fortune USA - March 15, 2017 pdf free download.jpg

© 2015 Jeffrey Ball | All Rights Reserved